Flight cancellations ‘very likely’ this summer due to jet fuel crisis, warns EU

The EU is warning that summer holidays are ‘very likely’ to be impacted by a jet fuel shortage if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be closed due to the war in the Middle East. 

A dwindling reserve of jet fuel on the continent, combined with restocking costs now double that of last year, is forcing airlines to increase ticket prices or cancel flights to strategically retain supplies for more profitable routes.

German airline Lufthansa announced yesterday it would cancel 20,000 flights until October, axing “unprofitable short-haul flights,” to keep long-haul services intact. No French flights are impacted in the initial round of cuts.

Airlines UK, which represents several companies including British AIrways, Ryanair, easyJet, and Jet2, has urged the Civil Aviation Authority in the UK to draft an emergency jet fuel plan to ensure stocks last.

The plan would allow for temporary imports of a fuel type (Type A) authorised in the US but banned in the UK and Europe, and for jet fuel to be added to the National Emergency PLan for Fuel. 

Airlines UK is also asking for a temporary change of rules surrounding take-off slots.

Currently, carriers need to utilise their booked take-off and landing slots at UK airports to keep them  in place throughout the year, meaning they often fly unprofitable and sparsely used routes in the off-season to guarantee they have the best slots during busier periods.

The group argues rules should be changed to allow airlines to keep slots without flying these off-season routes, to reserve fuel supplies for the busier peak season journeys.

It comes after the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol warned last week that Europe had only around six weeks of jet fuel reserves left.

The price of jet fuel (kerosene) is now $188 per barrel, 106.5% higher than the 2025 average.

‘Many people will be affected’

“Unfortunately, it's very likely that many people's holidays will be affected, either by flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets,” said the EU energy commissioner to media outlet Sky News. 

“Even if we do everything we can do, if the jet fuel is not there, then it's not there,” he said.

“[Currently] it is primarily a crisis of prices and not yet a crisis of supply, but unfortunately we cannot be sure to prevent a crisis of supply, especially on jet fuel in the future, if the crisis continues.” 

Up to 40% of jet fuel used in Europe is supplied via the Strait of Hormuz, and the sustained closure, blockade, and tensions around the bottleneck mean it has been weeks without the continent being fully restocked. 

Ships holding large reserves of jet fuel from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and other countries are reportedly stuck in the strait, unable to exit and reach Europe.

Other leading exporters such as China have temporarily halted exports to ensure they have enough domestic supply.

“If we had peace tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz opened, I think we will manage without [a wider cut to flights] but I have to say that even in the best-case scenario, the price crisis will still last for quite some time,” Mr Jorgensen added.

The EU Commission announced a host of new recommendations yesterday aimed at aligning member state responses to the current crisis. 

Primary aims include an accelerated shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy, as well as better management of supplies.

“National emergency measures and measures aimed at ensuring the availability of jet fuel and diesel, including the availability of oil refinery production capacities, should be closely coordinated,” the commission said, although he did not give any exact details.

A draft of plans to be given to member states reportedly includes a number of non-binding resolutions aimed at promoting a transition to clean energy and ensuring jet fuel supplies are as high as possible. 

Airlines turn away from ‘hedging’ but risk higher summer costs 

Airlines such as low-cost carrier Ryanair are reportedly yet to sign new ‘hedging’ contracts, which may impact summer flight schedules.

Hedging contracts – used by European airlines but less common in North America – allow airlines to purchase jet fuel for a fixed price for weeks or months in advance.

It has so far seen most European airlines avoid massive price rises, but as contracts begin to end they are faced with jet fuel prices that have more than doubled and are hesitant to lock these prices in.

By temporarily switching strategy and not signing long-term contracts, they are hoping that current high prices are temporary, and will drop – at which point they will again sign hedging contracts.

While this points to long-term reassurances that the current issues are only temporary, airlines accepting higher prices for this summer’s jet fuel needs means price increases are looking more and more likely.