Warmer than average summer predicted in France

A warmer than usual summer is expected this year, according to state forecaster Météo France in its provisional report for June - August.

It comes after France experienced an early record-breaking heatwave in May, the end of the spring season in the meteorological calendar. 

The forecaster offers a three-month prediction at the start of each month, covering general weather trends. 

“Given the stakes for the safety of people and property, the quality of forecasts and the effectiveness of our weather monitoring system are our top priorities,” said director general of Météo France Virginie Schwarz in a post on the forecaster’s website. 

Bulletins at the start of each meteorological season (March, June, September, December) are most popular as the time period coincides with a full season.

East more likely to see warm summer

“A warmer-than-usual summer is expected across all of western Europe, with a higher probability around the Mediterranean and Alps,” states Météo France in its bulletin, published on June 2.

It predicts that the summer months have a 50% chance of being warmer than average, with a 25% chance they will remain the same, and 25% chance they will be cooler than normal.

In the east – generally the German border, Alps, Rhône Valley and Riviera –  and Corsica this increases to a 60% likelihood, with only a 20% chance of the summer being similar to or cooler than recent years.

“Despite the forecasts, occasional episodes of colder than usual weather may appear throughout summer.”

The bulletin usually provides an overview of expected rainfall across but forecasters have been unable to pinpoint specific trends this time. 

Therefore, the service is predicting an even 33% chance each way of a wetter-than-usual, drier-than-usual and typical summer. 

The forecaster stresses that these are only predictions, and precise information will only be known throughout the summer period. 

“This bulletin does not allow for detailed forecasts for the coming months on a day-by-day or even week-by-week basis. It only attempts to determine the expected average trends.

“Temperature can be considered as a general seasonal average, but a specific event, lasting from a few days to a few weeks, can only be anticipated a few days in advance using conventional weather forecasting.”

Summer preparations

Following last summer – the third-hottest ever recorded, with temperatures reaching nearly 2C warmer than average and a series of major wildfires – Météo France is prepared for this year. 

It has provided a dossier offering advice on dealing with common intense weather conditions in summer (heatwaves, summer storms, forest fires), available here. 

Residents across France are advised to regularly check Météo France in the summer to see if heatwave warnings have been issued (and in turn, whether local authorities will enact heatwave plans), as well as for storms, etc. 

The forecaster also provides a daily forest fire map, highlighting departments at risk of blazes.