Why the far-right is now a major contender in France's 2027 elections

The Rassemblement National (RN) is no longer a fringe movement but a deeply rooted political force with a realistic path to power in France’s 2027 elections, analysts told a recent panel discussion attended online by The Connexion.

It comes as presidential elections are expected to be held next spring and the winner is likely to call legislative elections soon after. 

A poll* recently showed the RN as voters’ favourite for the first round – with Jordan Bardella being slightly preferred to Marine Le Pen – and with centre-right Édouard Philippe well positioned to stand against them in the second round.

The April discussion, hosted by the Anglo-American Press Association, featured British author and former Financial Times correspondent Victor Mallet, Paris-based Time and Fortune correspondent Vivienne Walt, and political scientist Louis Alexandre Berg of Georgia State University and Sciences Po.

Le Pen’s legal case and the question of leadership

The panel opened with a discussion of Marine Le Pen’s conviction for embezzling EU funds and her current ban from public office, which threatens to prevent her from standing in the 2027 presidential election unless she succeeds on appeal later this year.

Most observers expect her conviction to stand, Mr Mallet said, though the appeal court could potentially reduce the five-year period of ineligibility, possibly enough for her to stand next year. It has done little to dent her popularity, probably because the offence is seen as “technical”.

Mr Berg said “the legal case seemed pretty clear”, but the more important political question now is whether the RN has fundamentally changed as a party – and whether it matters if Ms Le Pen or RN president Jordan Bardella eventually leads the presidential campaign.

The panel agreed that the party has undergone a major transformation since the days of Jean-Marie Le Pen and the old Front National (FN).

From fringe party to national organisation

Ms Walt recalled that when she first interviewed Marine Le Pen around a decade ago, the party was still strongly anti-EU.

“When I interviewed her, Le Pen had a huge poster on her wall saying ‘Brexit: where next?’,” she said.

Since then, however, the party has shifted from advocating ‘Frexit’, instead repositioning itself as what Ms Walt called “a kind of anti-Macron party”.

She noted that today, in some former communist strongholds in the north, many people have now become strong campaigners on the ground for the RN.

Mr Mallet said the RN’s dédiabolisation (detoxification) strategy under Marine Le Pen had succeeded and the RN has also benefited from a worldwide rise in nationalist, populist parties pitted against a mainstream establishment seen as globalist.

“When I started planning my book a few years ago, France seemed ahead of the curve,” he said, noting the subsequent rise of parties such as Germany’s AfD and similar movements elsewhere in Europe.

“It’s remarkable that these movements have become much stronger, even in countries previously considered inoculated against extremism by their experience during World War Two.”

A recurring theme during the discussion was the weakness of France’s traditional mainstream parties compared to the RN’s increasingly effective local organisation.

Mr Berg said the RN had steadily evolved from a fringe movement into a durable political force capable of governing municipalities and building alliances with parts of the traditional right. “It’s a different party now,” he said.

Mr Mallet said the RN had taken on some of the strong local campaigning traditions once associated with the communist party and socialists in industrial northern France.

He pointed to Pas-de-Calais, where the RN now dominates parliamentary representation.

“The RN goes to local fêtes, it goes to the market,” he said, contrasting this with President Macron’s centrist movement, which he described as weakly rooted at local level.

Ms Walt agreed, saying: “Across France, you will not find a [Macron-aligned] party office anywhere. Whereas the RN is everywhere.”

Bardella, alliances and the shifting political landscape

The analysts also discussed Jordan Bardella’s growing political importance, especially if Marine Le Pen is unable to stand.

Ms Walt described Mr Bardella, 30, as “shockingly young and inexperienced” when she first met him, but warned against dismissing him too easily.

Mr Mallet said many educated urban voters underestimate his appeal.

“One of the reasons I wrote my latest book [Far-Right France] was because a lot of French people were saying to me: ‘Bardella’s too young, too stupid, not presidential,’” he said.

“But I also remember people saying before Brexit that British voters would never support something so economically damaging – and then they did.”

He said commentators risk “wishful thinking” if they assume RN electoral success cannot happen.

Mr Berg added that Mr Bardella’s youth could help attract younger voters if no strong rival candidate emerges.

As president, the panellists said Ms Le Pen may be more ‘pragmatic’ and adaptable, while Mr Bardella is an “unknown quantity” in this respect.

However, he has proven open to building ties with big business, and Mr Berg said some conservative Catholic billionaires – such as Vincent Bolloré and Pierre-Édouard Stérin – are “increasingly openly helping the party, both through the media and through training and financial support”.

Mr Bardella may have been disappointed not to get the chance to be prime minister, the panel said, but in retrospect this will likely play in his favour as he will be “untainted” by association with recent economic and political difficulties.

The discussion also examined changing political alliances in France.

Mr Mallet noted that the RN now attracts some Jewish voters who would once have rejected the party because of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s reputation for antisemitism. At the same time, accusations of this are now increasingly directed towards parts of the far-left.

The old system in which mainstream parties united to block the far-right in second-round elections also seems weaker, and the panellists expressed concern that mainstream opponents of the RN appear insufficiently mobilised ahead of 2027.

“It’s troubling that there are no dynamic figures emerging to oppose them,” Ms Walt said, adding that talk of a possible François Hollande comeback was “mind-boggling”.

Mr Mallet argued that the RN could probably only be defeated by a strong centre-right candidate, such as former prime minister Édouard Philippe.

Foreign policy, immigration and the limits of nationalist politics

On international issues, the analysts said the RN has become more cautious in its positioning, particularly regarding US President Donald Trump.

European far-right parties increasingly avoid appearing too closely aligned with him, especially during his second term, Mr Mallet said, because he is viewed by many Europeans as “unhinged”.

He suggested major international crises could still influence French voting behaviour before 2027, especially if voters want to prioritise stability and experience.

“One thing that boosts Macron in opinion polls is when he’s seen taking a lead internationally,” he said. “You may think he’s arrogant, but in a time of war, voters may ask: ‘Who looks like they know what they’re doing?’”

The panel also examined what an RN presidency could mean for France, the EU and immigration policy.

Ms Walt said Marine Le Pen’s strategy was now to “stay in the EU and unravel it from within”.

Mr Mallet warned that the RN’s vision of a “loose federation of national governments” would be “very destructive” for the EU.

The speakers also discussed concerns over democratic institutions under far-right governments. Mr Berg pointed to developments in countries such as Hungary and Poland, where far-right administrations had weakened courts, academia and other institutions.

He stressed the RN was “not exactly the same kind of animal”, but said some similar tendencies existed.

Asked what an RN presidency could mean in practice, Mr Mallet said the party’s proposals would represent a major break with traditional French values.

“What they say they're going to do is essentially take away liberté, égalité, fraternité and the universality of rights from anybody who isn't a French citizen. They're also going to massively reduce the number of migrants, and confine migration to a few short-term jobs that are needed badly.”

The RN has proposed measures including national preference in employment and social benefits.

In the past there were also question marks over the issue of permitting dual nationality. “They have stopped talking about it, but it’s still lurking there as a possibility,” said Mr Mallet.

He noted that implementing some policies would require constitutional changes – which the RN says it would do via referendums.

The panel also discussed possible implications for foreigners living in France, including Britons and Americans.

Ms Walt noted that France has already adopted tougher immigration rules in recent years, including stricter language requirements, civic tests and new healthcare charges affecting some foreigners.

Mr Berg said, however, that the RN’s rhetoric is more strongly directed towards Muslims and people perceived as not “looking French”, rather than anglophone expatriates.

However, Mr Mallet said “anyone who is a racist will vote for them anyway”, so they have to work hardest to appear more moderate on this.

“The problem is that we don't know what they would actually do if they came to power, if they had absolute power. Would the gloves come off and would they revert to old Jean-Marie Le Pen-style policies?”

Migration nevertheless remains central to the RN’s political success, Mr Mallet said, stoking fears that “they're taking our social services, our student and hospital and school places etc”.

“It's not that they're taking our jobs, because we want them to do the sort of jobs that we don't want to do. But we don't want them to have the benefits that we have,” he said.

At the same time, hardline rhetoric on immigration has become increasingly common across Europe, including among mainstream centre-right parties, so such a stance is no longer seen as “out on a limb”.

He added that “some people tell me ‘I don’t agree with them on immigration, but I’m going to vote for them anyway because of the economic situation’.”

Towards the end of the discussion, Mr Mallet argued that nationalist movements ultimately face a contradiction in opposing globalisation.

“When I interviewed Bardella years ago, I pointed out that his own surname reflects migrant origins,” he said. “A hundred years ago Italians were accused of taking French jobs. Now they’re completely integrated. I also told him globalisation isn’t going to reverse itself.”

“I said: ‘Where is your phone made? Where is the software from?’”

“The global economy is so integrated, and I'm not sure the nationalist parties of Europe are really ready to understand the way the world actually works.”

* By Toluna Harris Interactive, together with media RTL and M6. They questioned a sample of 1,725 people on the French electoral lists intended to be representative of the French population aged 18 or more.