French weekly weather forecast November 2 - 6: chilly week ahead

A hint of winter will arrive early in France this week, as temperatures remain below average for the season leading to frosty mornings.

Temperatures will begin to climb by the end of the week, but will remain well below national averages. 

Rain is forecast in the south from Wednesday onwards, with a risk of storms on Thursday.

Monday November 2 

Conditions at the start of the week remain calm. 

A high-pressure system from the British Isles that has kept skies calm across France remains in place, but a mass of cold air moving across Europe towards the Iberian Peninsula has started to cross France, bringing chilly conditions. 

The north will remain largely cloudy, but in the south skies should be mainly free of clouds, and up to 10 hours of sunshine is forecast in some areas. Note in Corsica there may be persistent rain and clouds.

Most of mainland France should remain dry, but some showers in Normandy are forecast, potentially moving southwards to the Loire Valley.

Temperatures will be cooler than at the weekend. 

Highs of 10C - 14C in the north are slightly below average, but in the east where the cooler winds are most prominent, temperatures will remain in the single digits until the end of the week.

Temperatures will be cooler in the inland south and south-west, reaching only around 14C. Along the Mediterranean and in Provence highs of 18C are forecast. 

Tuesday November 3 

Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday, with cloudy skies in the north-west and more persistent sunny spells in the south.

Temperatures will drop further, however, with highs of 11C in the north, 8C - 9C in the east, 10C in central areas, and 12C in the south-west. 

Again, the Mediterranean and Provence are outliers, with temperatures of 15C - 19C, and potentially 20C in Nice. 

The mass of cold air will begin to effect conditions, with chilly winds across France. While these will not be strong enough for gales or strong wind alerts, they will bring a noticeable chill to the air, particularly in the north and east.

Official temperature recordings only measure conditions in the shade, and do not account for factors such as wind. Therefore, it could feel considerably cooler outside, especially in rural or coastal areas with little shelter. 

Wednesday November 4 

Wednesday will be the coolest day of the week, with national average temperatures reaching around 7.2C, roughly 4C lower than typical for early November. 

This measurement is an average of both day and night time temperatures, and is influenced partly by the cold mornings associated with this cooler spell and the morning frosts expected across France.

Daytime temperatures will also be at their coolest in several areas on Wednesday, and north of the Loire temperatures above 10C are unlikely. 

In the south, highs of 13C are forecast – slightly warmer than Tuesday – but Provence will also see temperatures drop. Only the coastal Riviera may see temperatures above 15C, rising to 19C in Nice. 

Wednesday also sees the return of rain to the south, moving inland from the Gulf of Lion. 

Rain is forecast in the south around Hérault and Gard, potentially moving inland to the Massif Central.

Thursday November 5 

Current forecasts expect persistent rain until the end of the week.

Rain will continue in the Languedoc area on Thursday, spreading towards the Alps and the Pyrénées, as well as further north into central areas. 

There is a risk of storms developing along the Mediterranean coast on Thursday, potentially leading to heavy rainfall, but the intensity of the storms will need to be confirmed closer to the time;

Weather alerts are possible and residents should keep up to date with local forecasts closer to the date.

Temperatures will begin to climb in several areas, including the south-west where highs of 15C are forecast and lower-lying areas should see plenty of sunshine. 

In Brittany, highs of 11C - 13C are forecast, and in the south-east highs of 17C are possible despite the risk of rain. 

Only the north and east will continue to see temperatures similar to Wednesday, with highs of 7C - 10C.

Friday November 6

Conditions are expected to remain similar on Friday, with temperatures remaining consistent alongside weather patterns. 

There is no consensus on the rain in the south, which may move further towards the Alps or remain in the Mediterranean, bringing another day of persistent rain to the coast. 

Calm conditions should continue into the weekend, with only a small chance of rain in the south, and the north remaining dry.

However, it will not be until next Monday (November 9) that temperatures return to average levels for the season.