Fifth heatwave ‘certain’ to hit France next week, highs of 40C

With France not yet clear of its record-breaking fourth heatwave of the year, a fifth is already confirmed to hit the country in the coming days, impacting the south-west and Mediterranean coast before covering most of France.

Eight south-eastern departments remain on a heightened orange alert for heatwave conditions today, the remnants of a heatwave that passed across the west and centre of the country last week before settling in the east over the weekend. 

These alerts are set to remain in place until at least Friday (August 8). 

However, weather models now point towards rising temperatures from this weekend onwards across most of France.

Renewed heatwave conditions are “a certainty” by next Tuesday (August 11) in several regions, said meteorologist Yann Amice to media outlet Actu.

It comes after state forecaster Météo France published its prediction of weather trends for the next three months. 

There is a 60% chance of warmer-than-usual temperatures, with the possibility for more heatwaves across the season, the forecaster said.

Highs of 40C over the weekend, 38C across next week

The fifth heatwave will follow a more traditional pattern for bringing intense summer heat in France.

It will be caused by hot air pushing through the Iberian peninsula and into south-west France before spreading across the country. 

This hot air mass will arrive as early as tomorrow (August 7) in the south-west, with temperatures hitting 35C in the area. 

By Saturday (August 8) this will rise to potentially 38C in the south-west, and up to 40C in Provence.

Storms on Sunday (August 9) may see temperatures drop slightly, before a new wave of increases at the start of the week. 

By next Tuesday, heatwave conditions are expected across most of France, particularly the south-west and Loire Valley, as well as around Paris. 

Only the northern coastline, and parts of the south-east will see temperatures below 30C, with most areas seeing highs over 35C by Wednesday (August 12).

How long will it last?

While models cannot accurately predict the end of the heatwave just yet, it is expected to last until at least next Friday (August 14). 

Official heatwave alerts may be raised across the south-west as early as this weekend, with other departments following at the start of next week. 

Issuance of heatwave alerts depends on both day- and night-time temperatures, as well as other weather factors. 

While conditions are not set to reach the levels seen in June and July’s record-breaking heatwaves, the impact of consecutive periods of intense heat are brutal. 

France is already facing a historic drought, with riverbeds empty and tap water restrictions in place across virtually the entire country. 

Heatwaves not only reduce the risk of rainfall but also dry out soils, making it harder for future rain to permeate the ground and refill aquifers. 

The agricultural sector has faced ‘catastrophe’ this year due to the heatwaves, with up to half of produce lost due to the conditions. A fifth heatwave will only increase both the short-term losses and long-term damage to production. 

France is also set to experience its worst summer for wildfires, and extreme temperatures will only increase the risk of blazes over the coming weeks.