French weekly weather outlook February 23 - 27: calm and unusually warm

France is set for a week of mild weather, with temperatures up to 10C higher than average for the season in some areas.

Previous forecasts of midweek storms have been revised, although rainfall is expected to cover much of France at the end of the week. 

Several departments continue to face warnings over river flooding due to recent rainfall even if skies are set to be dry at the start of the week. The dry spell should help river levels recede.

Despite the recent wet weather, national average temperatures in France have been above average for 42 days.

Monday February 23 

A few showers will remain over parts of central France in the morning but will end by the afternoon. 

Sunshine is expected across the south, although it will remain cloudy in the north. 

Highs of 14C in the north and up to 17C in the south – potentially 20C around Perpignan – are forecast. 

The Charente-Maritime, Loire-Atlantique, and Maine-et-Loire departments have all retained tier-four red alerts for flooding, although these areas will remain dry on Monday. 

With only three other departments facing a tier-three orange alert for flooding, the number of high-risk departments have decreased significantly over the weekend. 

Tuesday February 24 

A high-pressure system from the Azores - known as the Azores high - is responsible for the calm weather as it has pushed stormy conditions further north, and on Tuesday will reach its apex, covering almost all of France.

In turn, it is expected to be sunny across all areas (although there will be outbreaks of cloud coverage across the north) and warm. 

Highs of 16C - 21C are forecast, with national average temperatures around 6C higher than usual for the season. 

In the Pays-Basque, it may reach 25C, temperatures closer to the start of summer than the end of winter. 

Wednesday February 25 

Conditions will remain largely unchanged, although as the Azores high makes its way east Atlantic clouds may start to move in. 

This should not happen until late in the evening, meaning another day of sun and calm. 

Temperatures will remain similar to Tuesday but may reach around 18C in Paris and Normandy. 

In central France, highs may reach around 10C - 11C above usual for the end of February. 

Thursday February 26

Grey clouds will begin to appear alongside sunshine on the Atlantic coast.

However, rain should be limited to drizzles along coastal Brittany and the English Channel, although there is a risk of more sustained rain as clouds move into central France.

Clouds are set to cover swathes of the south but there is no risk of rain. 

Temperatures will drop by around 1C to 3C compared to Wednesday, but still remain significantly above average. 

Friday February 27

The Atlantic clouds will break overnight, bringing rain to the north and western coastline before progressively moving east and south throughout the day. 

The Riviera will be the only area to not have rain at some point across the day.

Exact forecasts on the intensity of the rainfall remain unclear, but it should clear up in most areas by the end of the day. 

Despite this, areas previously facing heightened flooding risks may be put on alert once more if soils remain waterlogged. 

Despite a further drop in temperatures, they will stay just above average, around 14C across most of France.

Early weekend forecasts show a calm Saturday, although there is risk of a renewed bout of Atlantic rain on Sunday.