Heatwave eases in France - but is another on the way? July weather forecast

Further heatwaves are predicted in France this summer, and could arrive within a week, according to forecasters. 

Most of France is currently experiencing a drop in temperatures after a ‘historic’ heatwave in recent days. 

However, 17 departments in the south and south-east will remain on a heightened tier-three orange alert until July 4. 

Alerts could last through the weekend before temperatures drop along the Mediterranean at the start of next week.

Forecasters predict that after a weekend of rainfall in the north and cooler temperatures in the south-west, Atlantic anticyclone winds will return at the start of next week and slowly begin to cover France.

This is likely to raise temperatures, and could see heatwave warnings return as soon as July 9. 

Canicule heatwave warnings require day- and night-time temperatures to be significantly above departmental averages for at least three days, meaning it is difficult to predict when warnings will be issued.

However, the incoming hot wind will cover France until at least July 14, according to meteorologist Yann Amice in an interview with Actu. 

Temperatures of 35C or more are likely to cover the majority of the country for several days.

The heatwave may extend further into July, as the eventual eastward movement of the warm winds towards Central Europe will coincide with a pressure drop in the air above France. This will allow hot air from North Africa to blow into the country.

This ‘Saharan heat pump’ could keep temperatures high for several additional days across the country, particularly in the south and in the Mediterranean Sea.

A prolonged heatwave in mid-July would by no means be the last of the summer season this year. 

It is too early to predict exact patterns that cause temperatures to spike, but state forecaster Météo France believes there is a 60% chance this summer will be warmer than average.

June 2025 was the second-hottest June on record in France, more than 3C warmer than the average.

Drought and heatwaves lead to vicious cycle 

Widespread drought alerts are already in place across several departments in France, and further heatwaves will no doubt add to the conditions. 

Increased temperatures dry up soil and evaporate water reserves, leading to a drop in available water in certain basins. 

However, dry soil itself decreases the level of evapotranspiration in an area, according to Mr Amice. 

This, in turn, warms up the air in an area and leads to a higher amount of solar energy being converted into heat energy, keeping temperatures warmer. 

The combination of heatwaves and droughts feeds into each other, leading to localised vicious cycles which can prolong the effects of both.