Heatwave in France: will summer temperatures remain higher than usual?

Summer temperatures are expected to be higher than average this year in France, the state forecaster is predicting. 

Météo France predicts that the period from July - September has a 60% chance of being warmer than average across the country, and a 33% chance of remaining at typical averages. 

Higher temperatures are expected not just in France but across all of Europe, as warm anticyclonic winds from the Atlantic dominate skies throughout the period. 

For its part, La Chaîne Météo (owned by Le Figaro) predicts temperatures will be between 1C to 2C higher than usual this summer across the entirety of France but with an increased chance of warmer anomalies in parts of the north. 

Does this mean more risk of heatwaves and drought? 

A warmer than usual summer itself does not necessarily mean an increased number of heatwave warnings, nor more areas being put on drought alert. 

Canicule alerts – the most common to be raised in hot weather – are only put in place when day- and night-time temperatures are a certain amount higher than the usual average for three days running. 

This means it can be hard to predict when, or if, a heatwave is on its way, and it is only a few days in advance of the warm temperatures beginning that forecasters can be confident.

At the same time, it is increasingly rare for summer months to go without heatwave warnings, as climate change makes summers last for longer, and feel warmer.

This June alone there have already been two separate occasions where heatwave warnings have been issued across France, which could be an early indicator of more to come. 

In terms of droughts, warmer temperatures can dry out vegetation more quickly, however water table levels are usually dependent on rainfall during the autumn - spring months as summer rainfall often fails to penetrate below soil level.