New heatwave expected to hit France in early July
Experts say third major heatwave could impact crops and lead to water shortages
The heatwave could cover much of France. Archive photo shows people in Paris cooling off in June 2026 amid the second major heatwave of the year
Franck Legros/Shutterstock
The government is warning of a third major heatwave to hit France this summer, impacting much of the country between the first and second week of July.
“There is a strong probability that, starting the week after [some point after July 6], we will return to extreme heat… until July 14,” said Minister for ecological transition Monique Barbut to FranceInter on Wednesday (June 24).
It comes after state forecaster Météo France predicted a warmer than average summer in France this year, and two major heatwaves in May and June have hit the country.
The current heatwave has smashed all-time heat records, with June 24 the hottest day ever recorded in the country.
Heat dome effect to return
Conditions are forecast to cool down at the start of next week (June 29), but in most areas remain slightly above average during the day.
Heatwave warnings should be lifted however, as night-time temperature thresholds are not reached.
This period of respite may only last for around a week however, as on July 6 temperatures are expected to climb once more.
“It is entirely plausible that we will see fresh surges of scorching air moving from the Sahara toward France,” La Chaîne Météo meteorologist Régis Crépét told Le Figaro.
This could begin to impact the country on the week of July 6 and likely lead to a heatwave being issued by around July 10.
As a reminder, heatwave alerts are only issued once day and night temperatures reach around 3C above average for three consecutive days in a department.
“A new 'cold drop' could move in off the coast of the Iberian Peninsula. At the same time, the high-pressure system will reposition itself over Western Europe,” said weather forecast group La Chaîne Météo (owned by Le Figaro).
The high-pressure system acts as a lid over France, trapping hot air and sending it back down to the surface (the infamous heat dome effect that has exacerbated the May and June heatwaves).
“This… could act as a new heat pump, with a southerly flow bringing in a sub-Saharan air mass—and consequently, a sharp rise in temperatures,” La Chaîne Météo added.
The peak of this new third heatwave would hit around July 14, France’s national holiday.
What impact will a third heatwave have?
The arrival of a third major heatwave by July would be unprecedented, and while the exact temperatures would not be known until closer to the time, the damage to France’s ecosystem has already been identified.
Chief among these is the drying out of France’s soil, leading to water shortages and potential crop failures.
As seen last year, hotter temperatures lead to drier soils, which fail to cool down areas at night or absorb warmer temperatures in summer but reflect heat back into the atmosphere.
“The feedback loop between heat and dry soil, where each exacerbates the other, leaves us vulnerable to a repeat of what we are currently experiencing,” said Régis Crépét.
Even without a third heatwave, this could impact France all the way until August, with temperatures remaining above seasonal norms for weeks on end.
“There is still a possibility of a somewhat stormier August, with rain that would boost evaporation and bring temperatures down, but nothing is certain. The weather would need to change radically,” Mr Crépéet added.
