What happens now after the first round of voting in French elections?

The first round of France’s parliamentary elections has placed the far-right Rassemblement National ahead in a vote that saw a high turnout but leaves the country far from any political certainty. 

The first unknown factor is the number of three-way votes, or votes triangulaires, expected for the second round.

This is expected to be between 285 and 315, out of the 539 constituencies in mainland France, according to an estimate by the Ipsos Institute.

There were only seven in 2022.

This year’s result is largely due to the high voter turnout. 

The two leading candidates qualify for the second round in each constituency.

However, all candidates who win over 12.5% of the vote (based on turnout) may also qualify. This means that if the turnout is higher, they need less proportion of total vote to qualify for the second round.

The high participation this year means this number is lower than in the last two elections of 2022 and 2017.

The candidates who finished in third place during those elections needed more than 25% of the vote to qualify for the second round.

“As a consequence of the high turnout, candidates only need more than 18% of the vote to qualify for the second round,” legal expert Anne-Charlène Bezzina told Capital.

Read more: Marine Le Pen: ‘Democracy has spoken, now we need an absolute win’

Another factor that has increased the number of three-way votes is that there are fewer candidates than in previous years. There are some 2,000 fewer candidates in 2024 than in 2022.

“It is the combination of both of these elements, first the high turnout and then the low number of candidates per constituency, that has put us in this position,” said political scientist Dorian Dreuil from the Jean Jaurès Foundation.

76 MPs already elected outright 

Another result of the high turnout is the number of candidates who were elected outright after the first round.

The Interior Ministry confirmed on July 1 that a total of 76 MPs  were elected outright and do not need to go through a second round of voting.

This happens if a candidate has more than 50% of the vote from more than 25% of the number of eligible voters.

In particular, this was the case for Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement National), who was re-elected outright in her constituency of Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais).

“Logically, the higher turnout is, the more likely this is” said Mr Dreuil.

However, the high number of three-way votes and outright first-round wins do not mean it is any easier to predict which party will get the most seats in the Assemblée nationale on July 8.

“The first round results do not really let us estimate what the second round will be like. The same candidates will simply stand again next week.

"It is difficult to make a prediction,” said Anne-Charlène Bezzina.

However, one certainty is that on July 1, the parties will make their voting positions clear to their supporters.

“Faced with the Rassemblement National, the time has come for a clearly democratic and republican front in the second round,” announced President Macron on June 30.

A similar call has come from the Nouveau Front Populaire.

“In accordance with our principles, we will not let the RN win anywhere.

“If the RN is winning and the Nouveau Front Populaire has a candidate in third place, we will withdraw our candidate,” said Nouveau Front Populaire member Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Precisely how thoroughly this ‘republican front’ will be applied - and how well it will hold - remains to be seen.

However, the parties involved in the second round will say which candidates are standing or withdrawing on Tuesday, July 2 at 18:00.

Another unknown is how well voters will follow the instructions of the three main political alliances - the Rassemblement National's right-wing Union National, the centrist Ensemble and the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire.

“It is by no means certain. Studies have shown that voters made their choices very quickly for the first round votes, there was very little shifting between the three main alliances,” said Mr Dreuil.