French fuel prices continue to drop but oil prices on rise

Fuel prices have dropped for the second consecutive week in France, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the risk of renewed conflict. 

Diesel (gazole) has seen the strongest fall, dropping almost 20c per litre since April 8. 

The average price per litre is now around €2.20, down from a high of €2.39. You can track changes in price day by day across the month in our article here.

Petrol (both SP95 and SP98) prices have fallen around 2c per litre since the middle of April, both remaining slightly above €2 per litre on average. 

Across the period of April  11 - April 20 2026, diesel sales dropped by 18.55% compared to in 2025, pointing to more cautious drivers despite prices falling.

Across the same period, sales prices fell by 14.5%. 

Will fuel prices continue to drop?

The initial price drop came following the implementation of a ceasefire between the US and Iran, which led to a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Crude oil prices fell, and a backlog of shipments briefly began to be cleared. 

However, tensions quickly closed the strait once more, and the two nations seem primed to restart hostilities at any moment despite remaining in negotiations.

The strait, responsible for around a fifth of global oil and natural gas transport, remains closed to most nations.

Crude oil again rose in price, with a barrel of Brent (the global benchmark) reaching $107 dollars at the start of the week. 

In comparison, the price barrel was $91 on April 17, and its entire highpoint throughout the conflict was $112.

This points to fears that oil supplies may soon be stretched once more, and recent price drops overturned. 

The higher cost of raw materials is passed on from refineries to suppliers, who in turn increase the prices at pumps for drivers. 

While there is no imminent threat of a price hike, further sustained price drops are unlikely.

Government fuel aid for ‘high-mileage drivers’ will be available next month, which will help around three million workers in France cushion the blow of higher fuel prices between April - June.

Government plans to cap profit margins at fuel pumps continue to be criticised, with sector leaders saying no profit is being made and prices will not drop for drivers as a result. 

When will pre-war prices return?

Much depends on the end of hostilities and a prolonged peace in the Middle East, but many in the industry are not hopeful. 

Head of E.Leclerc supermarket chain Michel-Edouard Leclerc said prices are not expected to see a significant drop ‘for several months’ because of the conflict, possibly leading into the winter.

Oil prices will not reach pre-war levels for some time, at least until the backlog from the Strait of Hormuz is cleared and several new shipments safely reach their destinations. 

More widely, damage to oil production infrastructure in the region will need to be repaired, and until this is done global supplies will be lower than pre-war amounts, impacting prices. It could take months, if not years, to repair. 

Note that gas infrastructure has also been damaged in Qatar, straining global supplies of liquefied natural gas.

This means it could be several months before energy prices – fuel, gas, and kerosene – drop to figures seen prior to February 2026.

“An era of energy shortages," is possible in France if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists "for another two or three months,” said TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné last week. 

However, French President Emmanuel Macron responded: “We are not in that scenario… which is one of the worst-case scenarios, and is not currently the most likely. 

“The [current] situation does not lead us to foresee any shortages.”