France would favour gradual UK return to EU, says Sciences Po professor

This interview is part of a series by The Connexion on the UK Prime Minister’s recent comments about rejoining the EU, how likely a return is and what form it might take. 

A professor at the EU’s highest-rated politics university predicts the UK could rejoin the EU in phases, starting with single market membership. 

Christian Lequesne, professor of political science and specialist in French diplomacy at Sciences Po, said the UK may choose a Swiss (bilateral agreements) or Norwegian (EEA) model as a stepping stone to full membership later on. 

This would probably also be welcomed by France, he said. “In my view, France would prefer a gradual approach, with reintegration into the single market first.”

He said many European countries, including France, would accept the UK rejoining today, but he did not think even Mr Burnham was ready to go that far so quickly.

He said: “He needs to gauge the level of support he would have in Britain for this real step up in the normalisation of relations. He needs to build up legitimacy.

“He also needs to see if really setting himself apart in this way would help him politically against Reform.”

However, either the Norwegian or the Swiss model would require financial contributions from the UK, Prof Lequesne said. 

“That’s still a problem in Britain, but at the same time we’ve realised clearly that everything the Brexiters said about ‘Global Britain’ doesn’t work because Britain’s natural market is the continent.

“I think Britons are perhaps ready to make compromises on this to ease the burdens hindering businesses – the customs formalities and administrative red tape.”

He added: “So then, if we ever take it to the next level of rejoining the EU – perhaps that’s for the next generation – what will need to be done?

“In my opinion, we’ll still have to formally renegotiate. But then, as the standards are virtually the same, you can imagine it would be a fairly quick negotiation. I’d say it would require between six months and a year.

“First, there must be an official request by the British government, supported by a majority of MPs in Parliament in London.”

He doubted there were any countries that would seek to block the UK’s rejoining on principle.

“That said, there will be states that might ask for concessions. I’m thinking in particular of fisheries. I’m thinking of the Dutch, the French, the Irish and the Danes. But on the whole, everyone has viewed Brexit with regret.

“There weren’t really any governments in the EU that thought it was a good thing and no one afterwards wanted to follow that model.”

Normally, when a country negotiates to join the EU fully – not just the EEA – it does not ask for opt-outs. It accepts all the usual objectives, Prof Lequesne said.

However, Poland and the Czech Republic ‘accepted’ the principle of adopting the euro 20 years ago but have still not adopted it. The issue would be difficult for the Conservatives to accept as the pound is strongly symbolic to the party, he said.

Free movement of people is also “not an easy issue for the UK”, and would be required for joining the EEA as a preliminary phase.

Nevertheless, this would bring the biggest benefits to ordinary Britons.

“It would be a return to the way things were before, when you could settle in any country in the EU without a residence permit. And if you’re working, you don’t need a work permit.

“The Brexiteers were thinking of the Poles who’d settled in Britain, but not of the British people living in France and Spain, or those travelling throughout the EU.”

Brexit voters may also now have realised that EU immigration was valuable, for example in nursing or catering professions, he said.

“When Brexit happened, new income criteria didn’t pose a problem for French people working in the City, but there was a whole range of lower-paid jobs where it became difficult,” Prof Lequesne said.

“Personally, I think British society needed to go through Brexit to realise that Britain is a European country.

“The British – especially the middle class – used to travel around Europe on holiday. But they hadn’t necessarily given much thought to the fact that Britain shared a European identity and I think people are much more aware of that today.”

Asked why France might favour the UK’s return, he said: “There are political reasons – though if France becomes governed by the far right everything would change.

“Most people in France’s moderate parties think Britain would help restore a balance with Germany.

“When Georges Pompidou said ‘yes’ in 1969, after General de Gaulle had refused twice, the idea was that German power needed to be counterbalanced.

“Also, the French have always regarded Britain and France as the key coalition for foreign policy and defence. There was a great deal of regret over Brexit amongst diplomats and the military in France.

“So the idea of rebuilding this relationship to be able to work together on global affairs would be welcomed.

“On major global issues, if Europe wants to exist as a player, there needs to be a compromise between Paris, London and Berlin. Then you have the potential to exert a certain influence. If Europe is divided, it’s much more complicated when you’re up against Trump or Putin.”

Regarding the 2027 elections, he said the danger if the RN is elected is that “the momentum for European integration tends to grind to a halt”.

“I don’t think the Rassemblement National has a specific position on Britain. It’s more that the European dynamic would be weakened in general.”

Asked if France might worry about the UK’s long-term commitment, he said that, leaving aside Reform, he did not see a future Conservative government favouring another Brexit. 

“I’m not saying they will love Europe, but I don’t see a risk of them wanting a Brexit again.”

Many Conservatives historically supported membership, including Margaret Thatcher, who believed in the value of the single market for free trade. 

“Brexit was irrational but David Cameron was blocked  by the rise of extremists within the Conservative Party – who were, incidentally, Mrs Thatcher’s children. 

“But they had become so neoliberal that they thought the UK could stand alone in the world, provided we were competitive. They had forgotten that Britain was no longer the Empire.

“France and Britain – we’re always victims of our history. When you have such a great history, it’s hard to accept your current position in the world.”

Prof Lequesne said Britain remained a country respected for its culture and history in the world.

“Unfortunately, the universities aren’t doing very well. It’s a shame because it wasn’t down to the quality of the lecturers. It was Brexit that led to the introduction of international fees for everyone. 

“This has put many good European students off. Consequently, it has forced our British colleagues – I know this because I speak to them often – to recruit less-qualified students from outside Europe to balance the university’s budget.”

He said if there was, as a first step, an agreement making it easier for EU students to go to the UK, it would “send a superb signal of openness”.